税收竞争、产业结构升级与区域经济增长——基于山东省地市级面板数据的中介效应检验

Tax Competition,Industrial Restructure Upgrading and Regional Economic Growth--Mediating Effect Test Based on the Panel Data Analysis of Shandong Province

横向税收竞争会对区域经济增长产生重要影响,以实现了产业结构转型的山东省为对象,就各地市间的税收竞争对山东省经济增长的影响及产业结构升级在其中发挥的中介效应进行实证研究。结果表明,产业结构升级在山东省税收竞争影响该省经济增长的过程中发挥着完全中介效应,总税收竞争和增值税税收竞争通过对产业结构升级率的负面影响加重了其对山东省经济增长的抑制作用,而企业所得税税收竞争通过促进产业结构升级缓解了其对山东省经济增长的抑制作用。

The tax competition will have an important effect on regional economic growth.In this study,Shandong Province,which has realized the transformation of industrial structure,is taken as the research object.An empirical study is carried out on the influence of tax competition on the economic growth in Shandong Province and the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading.By constructing fixed effects model and analyzing the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province during the year from 2005 to 2017,we verified that the industrial structure upgrading played a complete mediating role in the influencing process of tax competition on the economic growth of the province.The total tax competition and the value-added tax competition increased its inhibitory effect on economic growth in Shandong Province by exerting negative influence on the province's industrial structure upgrading,while the enterprise income tax competition eased its inhibitory effect on economic growth in Shandong Province by promoting industrial structure upgrading.