中国与“一带一路”沿线自贸协定、新产品边际与贸易增长

Research on the New Product Margin and Trade Growth Caused by the Free Trade Agreement between China and Countries along the Belt and Road

在传统的出口增长二元边际分析框架下,引入最少贸易商品和贸易阈值等概念,基于扩展边际理论定义新产品边际,并通过匹配协整海关HS-6位分类码下5 382个贸易部门的贸易数据,对中国与"一带一路"沿线自贸区中集约边际与新产品边际增长进行结构解析。研究结果显示,我国向"一带一路"沿线自贸协定相关国家出口的新产品的增速远高于总贸易的增速,"最少贸易商品"部门成为重构我国与相关国家贸易结构的重要力量,具有更快的增长速度与更大的发展空间。计量分析结果显示,自贸协定和关税水平分别作用于贸易增长的不同方面,共同推动中国出口的有效增长,"一带一路"沿线地区贸易协定安排与自贸区建设可以显著促进我国对外出口规模的扩大,不仅体现为已有产品在数量和价格两个层面所带来的贸易额增加,还体现为新产品出口范围的不断扩展。在后续的自贸区谈判和可行性研究过程中,可以合适的贸易协定安排深化双边的产业分工与贸易,推动我国新产品边际增长与贸易结构升级。

Under the analysis framework of traditional dual marginal of export growth,the authors introduce the concepts of minimum trade commodity and trade threshold and define new product margin based on the extended marginal theory;and through the trade data matching cointegration HS-6 classification code 5382 trade department,they carry out the structural deconstruction of the intensive margin and new product marginal growth in the free trade areas between China and arears along the Belt and Road.The results show that:the growth of China's export of new products to the Free Trade Agreement(FTA)related countries is much higher than the growth of total trade;the"least trade goods"sector has become an important force to reconstruct the trade structure between China and other related countries,which has more rapid growth rate and development space.The quantitative analysis shows that:FTA and tariff level respectively affect different aspects of trade growth and jointly promote the effective growth of China's exports.Overall,the trade agreement arrangements of areas along the Belt and Road and the construction of free trade areas can significantly promote the expansion of China's export scale,which is not only in the aspects of volume and price of existing products,but also in the scope of the expansion of new products exports.During the future research,we should deepen industrial labor division and trade of both parties and promote new product marginal growth and the trade structural upgrade with appropriate trade agreement arrangement.