2015-2019年四川省平武县肺结核登记率分析

Registered Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Pingwu of Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2019

目的了解平武县活动性肺结核2015-2019年年均登记率的分布特征,为评价防控效果提供科学依据。方法以乡镇为基本统计单位,用统计软件讨论人口和患者数的相关关系;利用地理信息系统(GIS)软件的自然断点分级法和Geoda软件的空间自相关分析方法,分析平武县2015-2019年各乡镇肺结核年均登记率地理分布特征。结果 2015-2019年平武县各乡镇年均人口数和年均患者登记数相关系数为1.000(P<0.01),随着乡镇人口数的增加,患者登记数增加。平武县5年患者平均登记率为59.32/10万,较高地区依次为虎牙乡、水田乡、大桥镇,较低地区为泗洱乡、木皮乡、豆叩镇等9个乡镇。最高地区分布在中部、西北部,较低地区集中在南部。全局莫兰指数为0.046 8,P值为0.260 0(>0.05),提示整体不存在空间自相关,是随机分布。结论近年来平武县肺结核登记水平在各乡镇间分布均匀,无显著差异。

Objective To understand the distribution of annual average registered incidence of pulmonary TB cases in Pingwu County from 2015 to 2019 in order to provide scientific evidence for the effect evaluation of prevention and control measures.Methods Pulmonary TB cases were counted by villages or towns as the basic statistical unit.The correlation between number of the population and TB patients was analyzed.Natural breaks method of the geographic information system and spatial auto-correlation analysis method of Geoda-software were used to analyze the geographical distribution of annual average registered incidence of pulmonary TB in villages and towns.Results The correlation coefficient of annual average population and cases in each village or town is 1.000(P<0.01),indicating that the number of registered patients increased with the increase of the township population.The average registered incidence of pulmonary TB is 59.62/105 in Pingwu.The regions with high registered incidence are Huya village,Shuitian village and Daqiao town,whereas the regions with low registered incidence are 9 villages and towns,including Sier village,Mupi village and Doukou town.The regions with high registered incidence are mainly distributed in the centre and northwest,however the regions with high registered incidence are concentrated in the south.The global Moran’s I values was 0.0468,and P value was 0.2600(>0.05),showing that the distribution for registered incidence of pulmonary TB present random distribution rather than spatial auto-correlation.Conclusion The registration incidence of pulmonary TB was equally distributed among villages and towns in recent years in Pingwu,and there was no significant difference.