基于灰色模型的我国收入贫困线标准预测

Research on the Forecast of Chinese Income Poverty Line Standard Based on Grey Model

运用灰色模型GM(1,1)对国家收入贫困线在时间序列的变化趋势进行预测分析,为收入贫困线标准变化提供科学的参考依据。以2011年~2018年的国家收入贫困线数据作为预测指标,建立灰色预测模型模型预测精度为好,适宜做中长期预测。我国收入贫困线标准继续呈现上升的态势,但其增长速度仍低于社会平均工资和居民可支配收入的增长速度。我国收入贫困线标准偏低,未来仍有一部分群体收入在贫困线之下。

Objective To use the gray model GM(1,1)to predict and analyze the change trend of the national income poverty line in time series,and provide a scientific reference for the change of the income poverty line standard.Using the national income poverty line data from 2011 to 2018 as the predictive index,it is better to establish a gray model with a model prediction accuracy,which is suitable for medium and longterm forecasting.The results show that Chinese income poverty line standard continues to show an upward trend,but its growth rate is still lower than the growth rate of social average wages and residents'disposable income.Chinese income poverty line standard is relatively low,and some groups will still have income below the poverty line in the future.