基于电网调度操作全过程的动态N-1风险评估技术分析

Analysis of dynamic N-1 risk assessment technology based on the whole process of power grid dispatching operation

针对传统调度方案中的风险,提出了动态N-1风险评估技术框架。对电网调度操作风险评估框架进行分析和设计,充分考虑开关操作失败导致的关联母线N-1故障风险。文中所提出的方法主要是利用状态转移矩阵描述调度单项序列失败的概率技能,通过对数合成的方法分析关联指标耦合程度。通过实际电网调度事件,对该方法的有效性与可行性进行验证。文中所提出的风险评估方法能够为每一步操作关联风险指标,使操作人员能够提前制定预防风险的措施。

Aiming at the risks in traditional scheduling schemes,a dynamic N-1 risk assessment framework is proposed.The risk assessment framework of power grid dispatching operation is analyzed and designed,and the N-1 fault risk of associated bus caused by switch operation failure is fully considered.The method proposed in this paper mainly uses the state transition matrix to describe the probability skill of single scheduling sequence failure,and analyzes the coupling degree of correlation index by logarithmic composition method.The effectiveness and feasibility of this method are verified by the actual power grid dispatching events.The risk assessment method proposed in this paper can associate risk indicators for each operation step,so that operators can formulate risk prevention measures in advance.