人工智能、财政职能与经济奇点——基于动态一般均衡模型的模拟分析

Artificial Intelligence,Financial Function and Economic Singularities:Simulation Analysis Based on Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

我国政府高度重视人工智能发展,在基础设施、科学研究、人才培养等方面给予大力支持,而经济保持持续稳健增长既是经济奇点的内核,也是我国经济高质量发展的目标所在,因此在大力发展人工智能背景下,有必要探究政府投资和再分配政策等财政职能对经济奇点的影响。本文构建含有居民、企业和政府三部门的动态一般均衡模型并进行数值模拟,探究人工智能带来的经济奇点临界值及政府财政职能对其的影响。研究结果显示:人工智能使我国经济于2066年达到奇点状态,智能资本随技术发展单调递增,经济在智能资本不断投入下即可达到持续稳定增长。具体而言,资本产出弹性与经济奇点临界值呈正相关关系,模拟结果证实,资本产出弹性越大,经济奇点时间节点也由2023年逐渐推迟到2066年,经济奇点越难实现。政府投资规模与经济奇点临界值呈U型关系,模拟结果显示,位于U型关系的右侧,即政府投资规模越大,经济奇点时间节点由2035年逐渐推迟到2082年。再分配规模与经济奇点临界值呈倒U型关系,模拟结果显示,位于倒U型关系的右侧,再分配规模越大,经济奇点时间节点由2084年逐渐提前到2039年。有鉴于此,目前我国应淡化短期GDP目标,发力“新基建”,提高政府投资效率,完善社会保障体系,加大再分配力度,实现我国经济高质量发展的目标。

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of artificial intelligence and provides strong support in infrastructure,scientific research,and personnel training.Maintaining sustained and steady economic growth is not only the core of economic singularity,but also the goal of high-quality economic development in China.In the context of vigorously developing artificial intelligence,it is necessary to explore the impact of government investment and redistribution policy on economic singularities.By constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model containing residents,enterprises and government,and performing numerical simulations,this article explores the impact of artificial intelligence on the economic singularity threshold and the scale of financial function on it.The research results show that artificial intelligence will bring China′s economy to a singularity in 2066,the smart capital increases monotonically with technological development,and the economy can achieve sustained and stable growth with the continuous investment of smart capital.Specifically,the elasticity of capital output is positively correlated with the critical value of the economic singularity.The simulation results confirm that the greater the elasticity of capital output,the time node of the economic singularity will gradually be postponed from 2023 to 2066,and the economic singularity will be more difficult to achieve.The scale of government investment has a U-shaped relationship with the critical value of the economic singularity.The simulation results show that it is on the right side of the U-shaped relationship,that is,the larger the scale of government investment,the time node of the economic singularity will gradually be postponed from 2035 to 2082.The distribution scale has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the critical value of the economic singularity.The simulation results show that it is on the right side of the inverted U-shaped relationship.The larger the redistribution scale,the economic singularity time node will gradually advance from 2084 to 2039.China should play down its short-term GDP target,launch"new infrastructure",improve government investment efficiency,increase the scale of redistribution,improve the social security system,and achieve the goal of high-quality economic development in China.