不确定性下炼化装置的可靠性分析研究综述

Review on Reliability Analysis of Refining and Chemical Plant under Uncertainty

炼化装置中经常会出现各种不确定的问题,不确定性是影响设备或系统可靠性分析最关键的因素之一。本文分析总结了不确定性的分类及不确定性下可靠性建模分析常见方法。其中,区间分析、模糊数学、贝叶斯理论、证据理论、蒙特卡洛算法等在现有的实例中运用比较广泛。每一种分析方法都有其分析的侧重点、局限性以及难点的突破,可根据工程实际的具体情况对炼化装置的不确定性分析方法进行选择。

Various uncertain problems often occur in refining and chemical plants,and uncertainty is one of the most critical factors affecting the reliability analysis of equipment or system.This paper analyzes and summarizes the classification of uncertainty and the common methods of reliability modeling and analysis under uncertainty.Among them,interval analysis,fuzzy mathematics,Bayesian theory,evidence theory,Monte Carlo algorithm are widely used in existing examples.Each analysis method has its emphasis,limitation and breakthrough of difficulties.The uncertainty analysis method of refining and chemical plant can be selected according to the actual situation of the project.