粮地租金变动对种粮行为调整的影响

The Impact of Land Rent Change on the Grain Growers’Behavior Adjustment

构建农户种粮行为决策的分析框架,基于江苏省621户粮食种植户的调查数据,运用多值选择模型和非观测效应综列数据模型,考察粮地租金变动对粮食种植规模和结构的影响。结果显示:粮地租金上涨导致粮食作物播种面积下降的概率增强,其中农户在粮食生产中的固定资产投资水平对该影响存在负向调节作用;种粮面积的缩减最终体现为粮食作物播种面积所占比例的下降,其中农户前期粮食作物播种面积对该影响有约束作用。这表明,短期内粮食生产固定资产投资与粮食经营规模对“去粮化”趋势存在抵挡作用,下一步要通过推动粮地租金理性化、市场化,因地制宜、因时制宜调整对规模种粮户的支持政策,防止短期“非粮化”压力转变为长期趋势。

Based on the survey data of 621 grain growers in Jiangsu Province,this study constructed an analysis framework for farmers’grain growing behavior decision-making,using a multi-value logit model and a comprehensive data model of non-observation effects to investigate the impact of changes in land rent of grain production on the planting scale and structure of grain production.The results show that the increase in the land rent of grain production will increase the probability of decreasing grain planting scale.The level of fixed asset investment in grain production has a negative adjustment effect.The reduction in grain planting scale is ultimately reflected in the grain crop production ratio,which is restricted by the farm scale of grain production.This shows that in the short term,fixed asset investment in grain production and the farm scale of grain production have a role in resisting the trend of de-grainization.The next step is to promote the rationalization and marketization of grain land rents,and adjust support policies for large-scale farmers according to local conditions to prevent short-term“non-grain”pressures turning into long-term trends.