电-热互联系统区间与概率潮流计算方法

Interval and Probabilistic Energy Flow Calculation Method of Integrated Electro-thermal System

综合能源系统中存在大量不确定情况,单一网络的状态变化可能影响到整个系统,因此进行了不确定性分析。通过多元函数泰勒展开,并采用迭代方法得到状态量区间解,通过均值、标准差与区间上/下限关系得到状态量均值与标准差。算例分析验证了所提方法的准确性。

There are a lot of uncertainties in the integrated energy system,and the state changes of a single network may affect the entire system.Therefore,this paper carries out an uncertainty analysis.Through the Taylor expansion of the multivariate function,the interval solution is obtained by the iterative method,and the mean value and the standard deviation are obtained through the relationship between the mean value,the standard deviation and the upper/lower limit of the interval.The analysis of numerical examples verifies the accuracy of the proposed method.