基于模糊集值法和云重心法的网络舆情风险预警方法研究

Research on Early Warning Method of Network Public Opinion Risk Based on Fuzzy Extremum Statistical Method and Cloud Center of Gravity Method

[目的/意义]旨在建立科学有效的网络舆情风险预警机制,实现更高效的舆情管理。[方法/过程]通过建立网络舆情风险预警指标体系并利用模糊极值统计法对其权重进行计算,考虑到网络舆情风险预警的模糊性和随机性,提出了基于云重心评判法的网络舆情风险预警方法。该方法通过计算云重心模型坐标的偏差来评估网络舆情发展态势的变化,从而得到网络舆情风险预警结果。[结果/结论]经实例验证,提出的方法可有效识别网络舆情发展所处状态,并对网络舆情风险做出预警判断。

[Purpose/significance]The paper is to establish a scientific and effective network public opinion risk early warning mechanism,so as to achieve more efficient public opinion management.[Method/process]This paper establishes the index system of network public opinion risk early warning and calculates the weights by using fuzzy extremum statistical method.Considering the ambiguity and randomness of the network public opinion risk early warning,it proposes an early warning method of network public opinion risk based on cloud center of gravity method.In this method,the deviation of cloud barycenter model coordinates is calculated to evaluate the change of network public opinion development situation,and the early warning result of network public opinion risk is obtained.[Result/conclusion]After verification by examples,the method proposed in this paper can effectively identify the state of development of network public opinion and make early warning judgments on the risk of network public opinion.