基于ARIMA模型的2020年衡阳市肺结核发病趋势预测

Prediction of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City in 2020 based on ARIMA model

目的用差分整合移动平均自回归(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对肺结核发病率进行预测,为人群肺结核的防治以及制定干预措施提供参考依据。方法收集衡阳市2010年1月-2019年12月肺结核月发病数据,运用SPSS 22.0软件进行数据分析,构建ARIMA模型对衡阳市肺结核发病趋势进行预测。结果2010-2019年衡阳市共报告肺结核病例66257例,2010-2018年衡阳市肺结核的总体发病率呈小幅度下降趋势,2019年发病率有所回升,发病主要集中在2-6月。ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)_(12)模型是拟合衡阳市肺结核月发病率的最优模型。运用该模型对2020年上半年肺结核月发病率进行预测后发现,各个月份的预测发病率和实际发病率均在95%置信区间范围内,相对误差中位数是16.54%,模型预测效果较好。结论ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)_(12)模型能够较好拟合衡阳市肺结核发病率的变化趋势,可用于衡阳市肺结核发病率短期预测,对肺结核预测具有较好的应用价值。

Objective To use an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model for the prediction of incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis so as to provide a basis for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and treatment and development of interventionmeasures. Methods We collected the data regarding the monthly incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City from January 2010 to December 2019. SPSS22.0 software was used for data analysis. An ARIMA model was constructed to predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City. Results A total of 66,257 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in Hengyang City from 2010 to 2019. The overall incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City from 2010 to2018 showed a slight downward trend. The incidence rate in 2019 was rebounded,and the incidence was mainly concentrated from February to June. The ARIMA( 0,1,1) ×( 0,1,1)12 model was the best model for fitting the monthly incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City. Using the ARIMA( 0,1,1) ×( 0,1,1)12 model to predict the monthly incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in the first half of 2020,the predicted monthly incidence rates and the actual incidence rates were all within the 95%confidence interval,and the median relative error was 16.54%. The model predicted well the real conditions. Conclusion The ARIMA( 0,1,1) ×( 0,1,1)12 model can better fit the changing trend of incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City. It can be used for short-term prediction of incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City,and has better practical value for pulmonary tuberculosis prediction.