财政政策的增强自动稳定效应研究——基于我国财政政策响应函数的时变测量依据

An Empirical Analysis of Enhanced Automatic Stabilizers:Based on Time-varying Dynamic Responses of Fiscal Policy

笔者运用时变参数模型实证测度了宏观经济冲击下我国财政政策反应函数的结构性变化,并推导财政政策在系统性或可预期性方面的优化空间。实证结果表明,在我国宏观经济环境与财政体制改革的动态结构变化的背景下,财政政策对经济产出冲击的系统响应机制有所弱化,这意味着财政政策逐渐偏离规则型政策导向。随着国家的宏观经济环境发生了较大变化,通货膨胀对实际经济产出与政策变量冲击的敏感度大幅降低,政策的系统性响应及自动稳定器作用进一步边际减弱。笔者提出,财政政策的自动稳定器功能可以通过以下途径得到适当拓展:基于实证依据统筹制定规则,增强财政政策的系统性;提升财政宏观调控政策的可预期性,降低政策对于市场主体的不确定性,由此加强财政自动稳定效应的逆周期影响范围及力度。此外,应充分考虑通货膨胀机理的潜在结构性变化,从多维度考虑货币存量的宏微观状态及其动态影响的变化路径,优化宏观调控政策组合的思路。

In this paper,we empirically investigated the structural variation of fiscal policy response to macroeconomic shocks in China.The findings suggest that,against the background of fiscal and governance reforms,the fiscal policy responses to output shock is retracting over time,implying that the policy orientation is drifting away from the systematic or fiscal rule approach.As the economy experiences major institutional reforms,inflation is becoming less responsive to changes in aggregate output and to the forces of fiscal stimulus in general,alongside with the weakening impacts from systematic policy and automatic stabilizers.We thus propose to enhance the effects of automatic stabilizers in several ways:to consolidate systematic policy orientation based on empirical evidence;to achieve greater policy predictability,by improving the ability of the public to anticipate fiscal policy decisions;and to further explore the structural changes underlying the inflation mechanisms from a comprehensive perspective,rethinking the principles and practical experience in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies.