基于VAR模型的广东省经济可持续发展路径探究

Research on the Sustainable Economic Development Path of Guangdong Province Based on VAR model

基于广东省1998—2018年数据构建产业升级、环境保护和经济发展的综合评价指标体系,并运用全排列多边形综合图示法测算出综合评价指数,发现产业升级和经济发展一直持续增长,而环境保护则呈现“倒U”形态。通过对产业升级、环境保护和经济发展的综合指数构建VAR模型,得出结论:①广东省产业升级除了受到自身影响,对其产生重要影响的另一个因素是环境保护;②广东省环境保护与产业升级和经济发展都有影响,其中经济发展对环境保护的影响作用有限,产业升级对环境保护的影响作用表现为先负后正;③产业升级和环境保护的提升都有利于经济发展,其中产业结构升级对经济发展的贡献率是由高降低,而环境保护对经济发展的贡献率则是由少增多。结合分析结果,提出强化环境保护政策措施、调整城镇化速度、发展信息化产业等建议。

The comprehensive evaluation index system of industrial upgrading,environmental protection and economic development of Guangdong is established based on the data of 1998-2018,and the comprehensive evaluation index is calculated with the full permutation polygon comprehensive graphic method,finding that industrial updating and economic development keep continuous growth while environmental protection is in a“reversed U-form”state.The following conclusions are made based on the VAR modeling of the comprehensive index of industrial upgrading,environmental protection and economic development:①Environmental protection is the other important factor for industrial upgrading in Guangdong in addition to the influences of Guangdong itself.②Environmental protection in Guangdong is influenced by both industrial upgrading and economic development,in which economic development plays limited roles in environmental protection,and industrial upgrading gives rise to positive influences on environmental protection after the negative ones.③The improvements in both industrial upgrading and environmental protection are both beneficial to economic development,in which the rate of contribution of upgrading of the industrial structure is increasingly lower and that of environmental protection is increasingly more.Suggestions such as strengthening the environmental protection policies and measures,the adjusting to the urbanization speed and the developing of the informatization industries are proposed according to the analysis results.