“双碳”目标下“十四五”电力供需形势

Power Supply and Demand Balance during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period under the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

“双碳”目标将推动电力系统加快清洁低碳转型,对中国“十四五”电力供需形势产生深刻影响。分析了“双碳”目标下“十四五”电力供需的主要影响因素,建立了基于部门分析等方法的电力需求预测模型,采用电力系统生产模拟分析电力供需平衡情况。研究发现“十四五”期间中国电力供需形势呈现电力需求保持较快增长、夏冬“双高峰”均面临电力保供压力、水电占比较高地区冬季枯水期存在一定电量缺口等特点。建议采取加强电力源网荷储一体化规划、加快完善需求响应政策和机制、根据需要布局适量气电与电化学储能电站等措施保障电力供需平衡。

Under the carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization(bi-carbon)goal,the clean and low-carbon transition will be accelerated for the power system,which will have a profound impact on China’s power supply and demand situation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Based on an analysis of the major impact factors on the power supply and demand situation in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in the context of bi-carbon goal,a power demand forecasting model is built using the sector analysis method,and the power supply and demand balance is analyzed with the power system production simulation.It is concluded that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China's power demand will keep a fairly fast growth;the“double-peak”power demand in summer and winter seasons will bring pressures on power supply;and there is a certain amount of power shortage in winter in the regions with relatively high proportion of hydropower installed capacities.It is suggested that actions should be taken to ensure the balance of power supply and demand,such as strengthening the integrated planning of source-grid-load-storage,speeding up the improvement of demand response policies and mechanisms and building a reasonable number of gas-fired power plants and electrochemical energy storage stations according to the needs.