基于气候适宜度的橡胶树产胶年景预测模型

Prediction Model of Annual Rubber Potential Productivity Based on Climatic Suitability

为准确评估不同橡胶树种植区的年产胶潜力的变化,根据2000—2015年遥感和气候数据,分别建立了橡胶产量气象影响指数和橡胶树气候适宜性指数序列,通过统计分析和利用ArcGIS空间分析功能,研发了基于年综合气候适宜度指数的橡胶树产胶年景评估模型,模型空间分辨率1 km×1 km,实现了橡胶树种植区产胶潜力精细化评估,克服了传统意义上依靠单站数据预测橡胶产胶年景的缺陷。结果表明:该模型实现了依靠气候数据客观、定量预测种植区橡胶树在不同区域的年产胶能力变化,能从宏观上区分不同区域的差异,为橡胶树精细化气象决策服务提供技术支撑。

In order to accurately evaluate the change of rubber potential productivity in the rubber tree planting areas,the meteorological impact index of rubber production and rubber tree climatic suitability index were established respectively based on the remote sensing and climate data from 2000 to 2015.Prediction model of annual rubber potential productivity based on climatic suitability was developed by the statistical analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis function,the spatial resolution of the model was 1 km×1 km,which realized the refined evaluation of rubber potential productivity,and overcome the defect of relying on single station data to predict rubber productivity.The results showed that the model can objectively and quantitatively predict the rubber production capacity in different regions based on climate data,and can distinguish the differences in study regions from a macro perspective,which can provide the rubber refinement meteorological decision-making service.