基于地理探测器技术的历史时期欧洲人口资源影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of European Population Resource in Historical Period Based on Geographic Detector Technology

利用地理探测器技术探测欧洲1400—1800年人口资源-气候-战争-瘟疫的联系,不仅对过去的人口资源与自然的关系提出了一个新的解释,而且提示了人口资源-气候-战争-瘟疫的交互影响,结果表明,决定人口资源空间分布最重要的因子是瘟疫爆发频次,经过风险探测,欧洲两大气候区的人口资源存在显著性差异;经过交互探测,任何两种变量对人口资源空间分布的交互作用都要大于第一种变量的独自作用。

In this paper,the relationship among population resource,climate,war and pestilence in Europe during 1400-1800 A.D.is explored by using geographic detector technology.It not only provides a new explanation for the relationship between population resource and nature in the past,but also indicates the interaction among population resource,climate,war and pestilence.The results show that the most important factor determining the spatial distribution of population resource is the frequency of pestilence outbreak,there is significant difference in population resource between the two major climate regions in Europe after risk detection,and after interactive detection,the interaction of any two variables on the spatial distribution of population resource is greater than the single effect of the first variable.