太空安全博弈与国际航天合作——空间交通管理视角下的太空安全态势与中国对策思考

Space Competition and Cooperation:Current Space Security and Chinese Responsive Approaches

太空安全与太空交通管理在多方面交织重叠,渗透人类航天的方方面面。当前和近期的太空安全,有几个值得关注的趋势。一是世界各国航天活动频繁,太空国际竞争加剧。这里最突出的现象是低轨小卫星星座竞争,可能改变世界航天格局,也使太空交通管理问题更加突出和紧迫。登月探火再次活跃,预示着太空交通管理可能会走向深空。二是近地轨道空间碎片问题更趋严重。这里不仅有小行星飞掠与撞击地球的风险,还有近地轨道碎片“雾霾式”爆发的风险。而低轨小卫星星座竞争,可能使大爆发提前到来。令人担忧的是,目前防止和抑制空间碎片的国际合作前景并不太乐观。三是太空安全与网络安全正在走向融合,这一趋势既有推动世界航天走向更智能、更精确、成本效益更佳的积极面;也隐含着航天霸权可能气焰更盛的消极面。四是太空国际法规建设高潮已不太遥远。除了频率和轨位资源公平公正分配问题和太空采矿带来的法规问题外,太空交通管理也将是其重点。在这一过程中,技术与政治融合,合作与斗争交织,对所有相关国家和人员的能力、素养都是考验。本文旨在通过太空交通管理视角来考察当前和近期未来太空安全态势,分析中国面临的太空安全威胁和挑战,并就中国的可能对策提出一些建议。

Space security and space traffic management are interwoven and overlapped in many aspects,penetrating all aspects of human space.There are several noteworthy trends in space security at present and in the near future.First of all,space activities around the world are frequent,and international competition in space is intensified.The most prominent phenomenon here is the competition of LEO small satellite constellation,which may change the world space pattern and make the space traffic management problem more serious and urgent.Moon landing and Mars exploration are active again,indicating that space traffic management may need to go to deep space.Secondly,the problem of space debris in low Earth orbit is becoming more and more serious.There is not only the risk of asteroids brushing pass or hitting the Earth,but also the risk of a“haze like”explosion of debris in low Earth orbit.And the competition of LEO small satellite constellation may make the big explosion come ahead of time.Worryingly,the prospect of international cooperation to prevent and suppress space debris is not optimistic.Thirdly,space security and network security are moving towards integration,which not only has the positive side of promoting the world space industry to be more intelligent,more accurate and more cost-effecive,but also implies the negative side of space hegemony.Fourthly,the climax of the construction of international space laws and regulations is not far away.In addition to the fair and equitable allocation of frequency and orbit resources and the legal issues brought about by space mining,space traffic management will also be the focus.In this process,the integration of technology and politics,and the interweaving of cooperation and competition will test the ability and quality of all relevant countries and personnel.This paper aims to investigate the current and near future space security situation from the perspective of space traffic management,analyze the space security threats and challenges facing China,and put forward some suggestions on China's possible countermeasures.