海量航天器在轨安全智能管控技术研究与展望

Research and Prospect of In-orbit Safety Intelligent Management Control Technology for Massive Spacecraft

随着航天事业的发展,在轨航天器的数量与日俱增。根据目前研制计划统计,预计2040年全球在轨航天器将达到8万余颗,是目前在轨航天器数量的16倍。同时,空间碎片越来越多,碰撞规避更加频繁,近年来空间交通管理正成为各航天大国研究的热点。海量航天器在轨安全智能管控技术是空间交通安全管理的关键技术之一,旨在保障空间交通管理规则有效执行、确保航天器在轨安全。本文从分析海量航天器在轨的形势、挑战与问题差距出发,围绕航天器在轨安全问题可发现、可处置、可验证三个环节,介绍了在轨航天器智能诊断、智能处置、仿真验证等智能管控关键技术的研究现状与挑战,并提出了未来发展的建议。

With the development of space industry,the number of in-orbit spacecraft is increasing.According to the statistics of the current development plans,it is estimated that there will be more than 80000 spacecraft in orbit in 2040,which is 16 times of the current number.At the same time,there is more and more space debris,collision avoidance is more frequent,and space traffic management is becoming a research hotspot in recent years.In-orbit safety intelligent management and control technology of massive space-craft is one of the key technologies of space traffic safety management,which aims to ensure the effective implementation of space traffic management rules and ensure the in-orbit safety of spacecraft.Based on the analysis of situation,challenges and problems of massive spacecraft in orbit,this paper introduces the research status and challenges of key technologies of intelligent management and control for spacecraft in orbit,such as intelligent diagnosis,intelligent control and digital twin.Some development suggestions are put forward.