基于云模型与PSR模型的长江三角洲水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the Yangtze River Delta Based on Cloud Model and PSR Model

在水资源危机日益加重的背景下,以长江三角洲为研究区域,采用PSR模型构建"社会、经济、水量、水质、水域、水流、生态环境"多维度的水资源承载力评价指标体系,构建基于云模型与PSR模型的水资源承载力评价模型,将TOPSIS、SPA-VAS算法的评价结果与云模型算法的评价结果进行对比验证。结果表明:2005年与2009年上海市、江苏省与安徽省的水资源承载力评价等级均为Ⅲ级,浙江省的为Ⅱ级;2013年上海市、江苏省、安徽省与浙江省的均为Ⅲ级;2017年上海市与江苏省的为Ⅱ级,浙江省的为Ⅰ级,安徽省的为Ⅲ级。云模型评价结果与TOPSIS算法以及SPA-VAS算法的结果基本一致,表明PSR模型的多维度评价指标与云模型的评价方法具有一定的可行性和科学性。

In the context of increasing water resources crisis,taking the Yangtze River Delta as the research area,the PSR model is applied to construct a multi-dimensional water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system of″society,economy,water quantity,water quality,water area,water flow,and ecological environment″.The evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on Cloud model and PSR model is constructed,and the evaluation results of TOPSIS,SPA-VAS algorithm and Cloud model algorithm are compared and verified.The evaluation results of the water resources carrying capacity are as follows.In 2005 and 2009,Shanghai,Jiangsu Province,and Anhui Province were all at GradeⅢ,and Zhejiang was at GradeⅡ.In 2013,Shanghai,Jiangsu Province,Anhui Province and Zhejiang Province were all GradeⅢ.In 2017,Shanghai and Jiangsu Provinces were at GradeⅡ,Zhejiang Province was at GradeⅠ,and Anhui Province was at GradeⅢ.The evaluation results of Cloud model are basically consistent with those of TOPSIS algorithm and SPA-VAS algorithm,which indicates that the multi-dimensional evaluation index of PSR model and the evaluation method of Cloud model are feasible and scientific.