辽宁省气温时空变化特征及其对农业的影响

Study on Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Its Influence on Agriculture in Liaoning Province

深入研究辽宁省气温变化特征将有利于促进辽宁省农业的高效发展。基于辽宁省33个气象站1960—2015年气温资料,利用线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall趋势分析和小波分析等方法,分析辽宁省气温时空变化特征。结果表明:1960—2015年辽宁省全年和季节气温存在不同程度的上升,年平均气温升高显著,增长速率为0.246℃/(10年);四季平均气温增长速率不同(冬>春>秋>夏),其中冬季平均气温增长速率最大,为0.384℃/(10年),夏季的最小,为0.135℃/(10年)。气温变化在空间上具有明显的地区差异性,且气温空间分布与海拔和纬度较为一致。由突变分析可知,全年和冬季、春季的平均气温突变发生在1987年前后,夏季和秋季的平均气温突变时间一致,发生在2008年。年平均气温的变化主周期为28年,次周期为8年,全年和春、夏、秋季平均气温在26~32年时间尺度上发生了"升高—降低"4次交替变化。总体上,辽宁省全年和各季节平均气温有各自的趋势和周期性,年平均气温增长趋势受冬季平均气温影响最大。研究结果可为辽宁省农业发展提供参考和数据支撑。

In-depth study of the characteristics of temperature changes in Liaoning Province is helpful to promote the efficient development of agriculture in Liaoning Province.Based on the temperature data of 33 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1960 to 2015,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Liaoning Province are analyzed by using linear regression,moving average,Mann-Kendall trend analysis and wavelet analysis.The results are as follows.From 1960 to 2015,the annual and seasonal temperature in Liaoning Province increased to varying degrees,and the annual average temperature increased significantly,with a decade growth rate of 0.25℃.The average temperature growth rate was different in four seasons,from highest to lowest,in order of winter,spring,autumn and summer.The growth rate of average temperature in winter was the largest,which was 0.38℃per ten years,and that in summer was the smallest,which was 0.14℃per ten years.Temperature changes had obvious regional differences in space,and the spatial distribution of temperature was more consistent with altitude and latitude.According to the mutation analysis,the abrupt changes of the mean temperature in the whole year,winter and spring occurred around 1987.The mutation time of the average temperature in summer and autumn was the same,which occurred in 2008.The main cycle of annual average temperature change was 28 years,and the secondary cycle was 8 years.The average temperature of the whole year,spring,summer and autumn has undergone four alternating changes of″rising-falling″on the time scale of 26 to 32 years.In general,the annual and seasonal average temperature of Liaoning Province has its own trend and periodicity,and the annual average temperature growth trend is most affected by the winter average temperature.The research results can provide reference and data support for agricultural development in Liaoning Province.