人口年龄结构如何影响住房财富效应?--基于家庭微观视角的分析

How Does the Population Age Structure Affect the Housing Wealth Effect?--Analysis from the Family Micro Perspective

人口年龄结构变动与高房价均为我国当前经济社会的重要特征,研究人口年龄结构对住房财富效应的影响对于房价调控、释放居民消费潜力具有较大的现实意义。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证检验人口年龄结构对住房财富效应的影响,结果发现:老年抚养比和幼年抚养比升高显著增强了住房财富效应,且幼年抚养比升高对住房财富效应的影响更大;进一步,老年抚养比和幼年抚养比对拥有大产权房产家庭和低房价收入比家庭的住房财富效应有显著正向影响,但对拥有小产权房产家庭和高房价收入比家庭的影响不显著;并且,幼年抚养比对家庭住房财富效应的正向影响在高房价地区更为显著,老年抚养比对其的正向影响则在低房价区域更显著。

The rapid change of population age structure is an important feature in China's current society.It is significant to study the influence of the change of population age structure on the housing wealth effect,to regulatethe housing price and the release of resident's consumption potential.This paper uses the data of CFPS to analyze the influence of population age structure change on the housing wealth effect,and further investigates the different influences of population age structure on the housing wealth effect of heterogeneous household.The results show that the rises of both child and elderly dependency ratios have a significant positive impact on the wealth effect of housing;moreover,the positive influence of the increase of early upbringing ratio on the wealth effect of family housing is greater.The increase of the old age dependency ratio and the young dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on the housing wealth effect of the households with large property rights and the households with low housing price income ratio,but has no significant effect on the households with small property rights and the households with high housing price income ratio.In areas with low to high housing price growth,the positive influence of the increase of the child-dependency ratio on the wealth effect of family housing is gradually strengthened,while the positive influence of the increase of the old-age dependency ratio is gradually weakened.