基于PCA-ESDA的成渝城市群经济发展空间差异研究

Spatial Disparities of Economic Level of Chengdu-Chongqing City Group Based on PCAESDA

基于统计年鉴面板数据,运用主成分分析法(PCA)和探索空间数据法(ESDA)对成渝城市群各城市经济发展水平进行综合测度,并在空间上对其集聚和异质性进行分析。研究提取出经济实力、经济品质和经济结构三项主成分,评价得分和空间相关性的综合研究表明:经济实力上,全局与局部相关性均不显著,成渝两城市极化明显,缺乏区域副中心城市,城市群发展能级不足;经济品质上,空间相关性以“二元集聚”的异质性显著呈现,重庆地区辐射带动效应强于四川地区;经济结构上,“川东—渝西”产业板块日益显现,但存在产业同质化现象。研究综合面板数据和空间地理数据,客观揭示了成渝城市群的经济发展水平差异,并提出相应的发展对策,以期对成渝区域协调发展提供理论和实践参考。

At present,the development of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has officially risen to a national strategy:The"Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Development Plan"approved by the State Council in 2016 pointed out that by 2020,the Chengdu-Chongqing area will basically be built into a vibrant economy,good quality of life,and beautiful ecological environment.National-level urban agglomerations,by 2030,achieve a historic leap from a national-level urban agglomeration to a world-class urban agglomeration;the sixth Central Finance and Economic Commission clearly stated that it is necessary to promote the construction of a two-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region and form a highquality growth pole for development;on Feb.24,2021,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the"National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline",further pointing out that the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle will be linked to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.As a"quadrupole",the main skeleton of the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network is constructed.Under the current complex domestic and international situation,the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration will participate in the important historical missions of the"One Belt,One Road"and the Yangtze River Economic Belt national strategy,as well as broadening China’s economic leeway and expanding the depth of the Chinese nation’s strategy,which will contribute to the level of economic development of the urban agglomeration.The research also appears to be particularly important.Based on the background of implementing the"Chengyu Urban Agglomeration Development Plan"and the promotion of the"Chengyu Region Two-City Economic Circle Construction",this paper builds comprehensive indicators based on the panel data of the threephase statistical yearbooks of 2007,2012 and 2017,using principal components.The analysis method organically combines the results of mathematical statistics and spatial correlation analysis,and focuses on spatial heterogeneity to explore the spatial differentiation of the economic development of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.In the principal component analysis of the economic level of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,the study extracted three principal components of economic strength,economic quality,and economic structure.From the ranking changes,it is concluded that the transition phenomenon of Yongchuan and Wanzhou in the front section is more obvious,while the longevity area there has been a significant decline in the ranking;in the middle ranking regions,a relatively stable structure is reflected from the analysis of three cross-sectional data.Among them:Nanchong has a relatively obvious relative improvement;in the latter rankings,Neijiang,Ziyang,Ya’an,etc.,the land has been retreating year by year,and Zhongxian,Dianjiang and other places are relatively slowly increasing.Further spatially analyze the spatial correlation of the three principal components,and conduct a mechanism analysis of the data results:in terms of economic strength,most cities have an order of magnitude difference compared with the two core cities of Chengdu and Chongqing,so the identification of sector features is not significant.This is reflected in the obvious polarization of Chengdu and Chongqing,lack of regional sub-central cities,and insufficient development capacity of urban agglomerations.While the two major economies of Chengdu and Chongqing are expanding and strengthening themselves,they do not have much"point-to-surface"driving effect.The remaining small towns lack development momentum,and the urban agglomeration region lacks a third central city.In terms of economic quality,the spatial correlation is significantly manifested by the heterogeneity of"dual agglomeration".The radiation driving effect of Chongqing is stronger than that of Sichuan.The administrative areas of cities and prefectures are relatively large,and the net outflow of population is relatively large.The development of Chengdu’s jurisdiction is still in the strengthening stage,which makes the economic quality in the background of lower economic aggregates have a clear collapse state;in terms of economic structure,"Eastern Sichuan-Western Chongqing",the industry sector is increasingly emerging,but there is a phenomenon of industry homogeneity.Rongchang,Neijiang,and Luzhou are adjacent to less than 100 kilometers.In terms of supporting development of leading industries,they also focus on equipment manufacturing,biomedicine and other industries.The division of labor failed to form a misplaced development,and vicious competition appeared in investment promotion and resource allocation.Finally,the study combines the results of spatial data analysis,and proposes three countermeasures and considerations:First,it is necessary to optimize the urban gradient system,build regional sub-central cities,and construct the urban agglomeration pattern of"super large cities-mega cities-large cities-medium cities-small cities",to form an urban gradient system with complete levels,appropriate scale,complete functions,and orderly operation;the second is to improve the regional coordination mechanism,build a community of urban agglomerations,weaken the economic functions of administrative divisions,and highlight its social governance and facility services.Improve the overall competitiveness of the urban agglomeration;the third is to transform the government’s governance functions to achieve industrial dislocation development.A good industrial chain connection should be formed between cities to ensure that cooperation is greater than competition,and economic development forms a joint force.