中国西北气候干湿变化研究进展

Research progress in dry/wet climate variation in Northwest China

西北地区对全球气候变化十分敏感,研究分析该地区干湿变化特征,对区域发展至关重要。本文从气象(降水、温度、蒸发)、水文(地表水、土壤湿度、陆地水储量)和植被等角度综述了近50年西北地区干湿变化特征。结果表明:西北整体气温升高,降水增加,呈暖湿化。但考虑陆面因素作用的分析表明该地区呈现东西部分化的格局。考虑蒸发因素的结果显示西部趋向暖湿化,而东部趋向暖干化。地表水资源和土壤湿度也显示西部增加、东部减少的态势。同时,西北西部植被状况正在明显改善。但陆地水储量显示,西北地区整体水资源仍十分匮乏,且处于不断减少的趋势。未来,西北地区气温仍将持续升高,降水、径流和土壤湿度也将会增加,整体向暖湿化转变。

Northwest China responds sensitively to global climate change.Research and analysis of the distribution of dry/wet conditions in this region are essential for regional development.This study provides a review of dry/wet changes in Northwest China over the past 50 years from meteorological perspectives(precipitation,temperature,and evaporation),hydrological perspectives(surface water runoff,soil moisture,and terrestrial water storage),and vegetation.The results showed that the climate is getting warm and wet with the increase of temperature and precipitation.However,the pattern of east-west differentiation is discovered by taking into account the effect of land surface factors.The result considering evaporation indicated that a trend of warm-wet occurred in the west of Northwest China,and a trend of warm-dry occurred in the east.Changes in surface water resources and soil moisture also showed an increase in the west and a decrease in the east.At the same time,the vegetation condition in the west is improving significantly.Moreover,the changes in terrestrial water storage proved that the overall water resources of the study area are still very scarce and in a decreasing trend.In the future,the temperature is expected to rise continuously,precipitation,runoff and soil moisture will also increase,and the region will shift to warmer and wetter conditions.