我国围产儿死亡率时空变化及预测研究

Study on the Spatial and Temporal Variation and Prediction of Perinatal Infant Mortality in China

目的研究我国围产儿死亡率的时空变化趋势并进行预测。方法收集2005-2018年围产儿死亡率相关数据,使用ArcGIS 10.2软件绘制围产儿死亡率分布地图,用Stata 14.0软件进行空间相关分析,使用SPSS 19.0软件进行整合移动平均自回归模型(ARIMA)预测分析。结果 2005-2018年,围产儿死亡率西部大于东部和中部,西藏和新疆是围产儿死亡率的高发地区;围产儿死亡率空间聚集性逐年上升(0.375到0.474);预测得出2019-2022年围产儿死亡率呈现下降趋势(4.08‰到3.92‰)。结论我国围产儿死亡率呈下降趋势,存在明显的地理差异;围产儿死亡率的降低需要临近省份的共同努力。

Objective To study the spatial and temporal variation and prediction of perinatal infant mortality in China.Methods We collected relevant data on perinatal mortality from 2005 to 2018,using ArcGIS10.2 to draw the perinatal mortality map,Stata14.0 to perform spatial analysis and SPSS19.0 software for predictive analysis of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA).Results The perinatal mortality rate is greater in the west than in the east(middle)and Tibet and Xinjiang are the regions with the highest incidence of perinatal mortality;The spatial agglomeration of perinatal mortality increased year by year(from 0.375to 0.474);It is predicted that the overall perinatal mortality of the country will show a downward trend(from 4.08‰to 3.92‰).Conclusion The prediction results of perinatal mortality in our country show a downward trend but there are obvious geographical differences.Development of perinatal mortality policies requires coordinated health policies from neighbouring provinces.