人口老龄化与高技术产业创新效率——基于调节中介效应的实证分析

Population Aging and Innovation Efficiency of High-tech Industries——Empirical Analysis Based on Moderating Mediating effect

人口老龄化是21世纪人类社会共同面临的重大问题,中国的老年人口规模和人口老龄化增长速度均位居世界前列,人口老龄化对中国经济社会发展的影响已遍及各个方面。选取1998—2018年省级层面的面板数据,构建调节中介效应模型实证研究人口老龄化对高技术产业创新效率的影响。结果显示:样本期间高技术产业的创新效率呈小幅递增的趋势;人口老龄化会通过挤占政府的研发投入阻碍高技术产业创新效率的增长;经济发展水平会缓解人口老龄化对高技术产业创新效率的消极影响。为了应对人口老龄化带来的挑战,应从开放生育、发展"银发经济"和扶持高技术产业等多方面入手,以此推动高技术产业创新效率的增长。

Population aging is a major issue facing human society in the 21 st century.China’s aging population scale and the growth rate are among the highest in the world,and the impact of population aging on the economic and social development of China has been widespread at all aspects.Based on the panel data at the provincial level from 1998 to 2018,this paper constructs a moderated mediating effect mode to empirically study the impact of population aging on innovation efficiency of high-tech industries.The results show that the innovation efficiency of high-tech industry increases slightly during the sample period.The aging of the population will hinder the growth of innovation efficiency of high-tech industries by squeezing the government’s R&D investment.The level of economic development will alleviate the negative impact of population aging on innovation efficiency of high-tech industries.In order to cope with the challenges brought by the aging of the population,we should start from many aspects,such as advocating free birth policy,supporting second child birth and supporting high-tech industry,so as to promote the growth of innovation efficiency of high-tech industry.