基于AHP-EWM组合权重的模糊数学模型对江西省水资源价值核算研究

水资源价值核算是制定区域城市水价政策的基础。针对水资源本身的模糊性和复杂性,通过层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法(EWM)构建江西省水资源价值核算指标体系组合权重,利用模糊数学模型对江西省水资源价值进行综合评价,并利用水费承受法确定江西省的居民用水价格。结果表明,2013—2018年江西省水资源模糊综合指数介于水资源价值指数的“中等”与“偏低”之间,且2013—2016年江西省水资源模糊综合指数呈上升趋势,说明江西省水资源虽丰富但价值较低;2013—2018年江西省水资源价格呈明显的上升态势,居民生活实际用水平均价格和平均理论水价均分别低于计算值和设定值,说明江西省水资源价值被严重低估,水资源价格仍有较大提升空间;基于AHP与EWM相结合确定权重的水资源价格模糊数学综合评价模型,评价结果更客观合理,为其他区域水资源价值核算提供了参考。

Water resources value accounting is the basis for formulating water price policies in regional cities.In view of the fuzziness and complexity of the water resource themselves,the combined weight of the water resource value accounting index system in Jiangxi is constructed by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method(EWM),water resource value in Jiangxi is comprehensively evaluated by using the fuzzy mathematical model,and the price of residential water use in Jiangxi is determined by the water cost bearing method.The results showed that,the fuzzy comprehensive index of water resource value in Jiangxi from 2013 to 2018 is between“medium”and“low”,and the fuzzy composite index of Jiangxi increased from 2013 to 2016,indicating that the water resources in Jiangxi are abundant but of low value;from 2013 to 2018,the price of water resources in Jiangxi showed an obvious rising trend,the average price of residents actual water use and the average theoretical water price were both lower than the calculated value and the set value respectively,indicating the water resources value in Jiangxi is seriously underestimated and its water resources price still has great room for improvement;the comprehensive evaluation model of fuzzy mathematics for water resources price based on the combined weight of AHP and EWM is objective and reasonable,which can provide effective reference for water resource value accounting in other regions.