基于shapely分解法的宁夏卫生总费用影响因素研究

Study on the influencing factors of total health expenditure in Ningxia based on shapely decomposition method

[目的]研究宁夏卫生总费用的影响因素,为宁夏地区控制卫生总费用的不合理增长提供政策建议。[方法]运用相关性分析、多元线性回归分析、逐步回归分析以及shapely分解法对宁夏2003-2017年卫生总费用影响因素进行分析。[结果]每千人口医疗技术人员数对宁夏卫生总费用的贡献率为26.29%,其后依次是公立医院住院病人人均医药费用、农村居民人均医疗保健支出和城镇居民人均医疗保健支出,其贡献率分别为25.21%、25.18%和23.32%。[结论]每千人口卫生技术人员数、医疗技术水平和城乡居民医疗保健支出是引起宁夏卫生总费用上涨的重要因素。应加大对卫生技术人员的引进和培养力度,将医疗技术进步转向低价高效,合理分流病人,控制宁夏地区的卫生总费用不合理增长。

Objective To study the influencing factors of total health expenditure in Ningxia so as to provide policy recommendations for controlling unreasonable increase in total health expenditure in Ningxia.Methods It used correlation analysis,multiple linear regression analysis,stepwise regression analysis and shapely decomposition method to analyze the influencing factors of total health expenditure in Ningxia from 2003 to 2017.Results The contribution rate of the number of medical technicians per thousand population to total health expenditure in Ningxia was 26.29%,followed by the per capita medical expenditures of inpatients in public hospitals,the per capita medical care expenditures of rural residents,and the per capita medical care expenditures of urban residents,which contribution rates was 25.21%,25.18%and 23.32%respectively.Conclusions The number of health technicians per thousand population,the level of medical technology and the expenditure on medical care of urban and rural residents are important factors that lead to rise of total health expenditure in Ningxia.Therefore,it is necessary to increase the introduction and training of health technicians,shift the advancement of medical technology to low-cost and high-efficiency,rationally divert patients,and control unreasonable increase in total health expenditure in Ningxia.