2020-2035年我国钒需求预测

Forecast of China s vanadium resource demand from 2020 to 2035

钒是一种战略金属,主要应用于钢铁领域及高端制造方面,准确预测研判我国未来钒矿产品需求形势,可以为我国矿产资源"十四五"规划以及钒矿供给侧产能规划布局提供参考。本文分析了典型国家钒消费与粗钢生产的内在规律,发现两者存在较明显的正相关关系,同时通过分析我国钒矿产品各消费领域情况,发现各领域消费数据适用ARIMA(差分整合移动平均自回归)模型。本文运用钒钢相关性法和基于ARIMA模型的部门需求预测法,预测了未来15年我国钒矿产品的需求量。综合两种方法的预测结果,得出如下结论:短期内我国钒需求量仍将增长,2026年到达峰值,届时需求量为11.62万t,人均钒消费量为82g,随后维持在10.79万~10.90万t高位震荡。根据预测结果,提出以下建议:编制实施钒矿产品需求侧发展规划、做好我国钒矿供给侧产能规划布局和提升钒钢科技工艺。

Vanadium is a strategic metal,mainly used in the field of steel field and high-end manufacturing.Grasping the demand situation of vanadium resources accurately can provide reference for the 14th five-year plan of mineral resources in China and the capacity planning layout of vanadium mine supply side.This paper analyzes the internal laws of vanadium consumption and crude steel production in typical countries,and finds that there is a clear positive correlation between the two.At the same time,by analyzing the consumption of vanadium mineral products in China,it finds that the consumption data of each sector is applicable to ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average model)model.By combining the forecast results of the two methods,the following conclusions are drawn:China s vanadium demand will still grow in the short term,reaching its peak in 2026,when the demand will be 116200 tons,and the per capita vanadium consumption will be 82 g,and then maintained at a high shock of 107900-109900 tons.According to the prediction results,the following suggestions are put forward:formulating and implementing the development plan of the demand side of vanadium minerals,making a good layout of the capacity planning of the supply side of vanadium minerals in China,and improving the technological process of vanadium steel.