基于终端消费结构的中国天然气市场研究

Study on China’s Natural Gas Market Based on Terminal Consumption Structure

作为天然气产业链价值最终实现环节的天然气消费市场,其对天然气行业发展的重要性日益凸显。将天然气分行业用气分为城市燃气、工业燃料、天然气发电、天然气化工、其他用户及自用气共计6类,基于《中国能源统计年鉴》中国分行业天然气消费数据,具体分析中国天然气市场消费利用结构、主要影响因素及发展趋势。分析结果表明,中国天然气市场仍将持续繁荣,预计我国天然气消费总量在2035年和2050年将分别达到6000×10^(8)m^(3)和6800×10^(8)m^(3)左右的峰值,天然气作为主体能源之一的地位将进一步凸显;随着我国天然气分布式能源、天然气调峰电站和天然气热电联产等工程的持续、有序建设,天然气发电行业仍将快速发展,城镇燃气、工业燃料和交通运输次之;天然气产业相关政策引导天然气消费市场容量和结构变化;天然气基础设施建设情况成为制约终端市场发展的重要因素;加快天然气产业链各环节的价格改革,可以推动天然气市场进一步繁荣发展。

As the final realization of the value of the natural gas industry chain,the natural gas consumption market has become increasingly important to the development of the natural gas industry.The natural gas can be divided into 6 classes:city gas,industrial fuel,gas power generation,natural gas chemical industry,other users,and gas for own use according to the gas for different industries.Based on the Chinese natural gas consumption data in"China Energy Statistical Yearbook",consumption structure,main influence factors and development trend of China s natural gas market are analyzed in detail.The analysis results show that the natural gas market in China will continue to prosper.It is estimated that the total consumption of natural gas in China will reach the peak of about 6000×10^(8)m^(3)in 2035 and 6800×10^(8)m^(3)in 2050 respectively,and the status of natural gas as one of the major energy will be further highlighted.With the continuous and orderly construction of natural gas distributed energy,natural gas peaking power station and natural gas cogeneration,the natural gas power generation industry will still develop rapidly,followed by urban gas,industrial fuel and transportation.Related policies for the natural gas industry guide the change of capacity and structure in natural gas consumption market;Natural gas infrastructure construction has become an important factor restricting the development of the terminal market;To accelerate the price reform of each link of the natural gas industry chain can promote the further prosperity and development of the natural gas market.