劳动密集型产品出口的历史变迁与未来走向: 中国与世界

Historical Changes and Future Directions of Labor-Intensive Product Exports:China and the World

20世纪80年代以来,在改革开放和外贸体制改革驱动下,中国出口快速增长,并成为全球劳动密集型产品出口大国。然而,随着人口出生率下降、劳动者受教育程度提高、劳动力红利消失,中国劳动密集型产品出口显性优势有所下降。全球经济如何调整以适应中国产业结构升级转型?本文提出三种替代调整机制:一是将劳动密集型产品出口重新分配给新兴经济体,二是对劳动密集型企业进行技术创新以节省劳动力,三是将企业由中国沿海向内地转移。其中,第一种和第三种方案进展缓慢,第二种方案尚未出现。未来在劳动密集型产品出口方面,谁能替代中国仍未可知。

Since the 1980s,driven by the reform and opening-up and foreign trade system reform,China's exports have grown rapidly and become a major exporter of labor-intensive products worldwide.However,as the birth rate declined,workers became more educated,and the labor dividend disappeared,the explicit advantage of China's exports of labor-intensive products declined.How can the global economy adjust to China's industrial structural upgrading and transformation?This paper proposes three alternative adjustment mechanisms:first,redistribution of labor-intensive product exports to emerging economies;second,technological innovation for labor-intensive firms to save labor;third,relocation of firms from China's coast to the mainland.Among them,the first and the third options are progressing slowly,and the second option has not yet emerged.It is still unknown who will replace China in the future when it comes to exports of labor-intensive products.