大规模虚拟储能模式平抑新能源功率预测误差研究

Research on Large-scale Virtual Energy Storage Mode for Stabilizing New Energy Power Prediction Error

新能源预测误差使系统调节能力不足导致新能源限电。为提高新能源消纳,结合自备电厂虚拟储能特点,提出大规模虚拟储能平抑新能源功率预测误差优化调度方法。首先分析新能源功率预测误差分布特点,然后将新能源预测功率按照一定置信度纳入发电计划,进而建立大规模虚拟储能平抑新能源功率预测误差调度模型。通过某地区实际数据验证所提模型的经济性和有效性,并针对关键因素灵敏度分析验证该模型的有效性。

New energy prediction errors cause insufficient regulation of the system,resulting in new energy abandonment.In order to improve the new energy consumption,combined with the characteristics of virtual energy storage of self-owned power plants,an optimal dispatch method is proposed for the prediction error of new energy power stabilized by a large-scale virtual energy storage.Firstly,the distribution characteristics of new energy power prediction errors are analyzed,and the new energy prediction power is incorporated into the power generation plan according to a certain degree of confidence,and then a dispatching model for new energy power prediction error stabilized by a large-scale virtual energy storage is established.The economics and effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through actual data examples in a certain area,and aiming at the sensitivity analysis of key factors,the avavilabilty of the proposed model is verified too.