新冠肺炎疫情冲击与跨国公司全球投资布局调整——基于政治动因与经济动因叠加的分析

Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and the Adjustment of Global Investment Layout of Multinational Companies——An Analysis Based on the Superposition of Political and Economic Motivations

新冠肺炎疫情蔓延对全球产业链和供应链的冲击引发发达国家制造业回流的隐忧。实际上,2008年国际金融危机以来,跨国公司的全球投资布局已经逐渐呈现由离岸布局向近岸、在岸布局转变的趋势,而这背后有深刻的经济动因:产品内分工的深化导致跨境贸易的成本快速上升,国际分工的收益相对下降,数字化、智能化发展深刻影响了制造业的要素投入结构,弱化了发达国家发展制造业在劳动力方面的约束。新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延暴露了复杂产业链和供应链应对外部冲击的脆弱性,出于国家安全的政治动因与上述经济动因叠加,会加速跨国公司全球投资布局调整步伐,中国产业升级和科技创新的紧迫性显著增强。中国要充分利用超大规模市场和消费升级优势,坚持利用外资不动摇,持续扩大开放,打造市场化、法治化、国际化营商环境,构筑并完善境内重点区域和跨境区域性产业链集群,以核心企业为龙头强化科技自主创新,提高产业链和供应链的控制力,加速向价值链高端攀升。

The novel coronavirus pneumonia has shocked on the global supply chains.This may cause the return of manufacturing industry to developed countries.In fact,since the international financial crisis of 2008,the global investment layout of multinational companies has gradually changed from offshore to near shore and onshore layout.There are profound economic reasons behind this.The deepening of intra product division of labor has led to a rapid rise in the cost of cross-border trade and a relative decline in the benefits of international division of labor.The development of digital intelligence has profoundly affected the factor input structure of the manufacturing industry,weakening the disadvantage of high human cost in developed countries.The global spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic exposes the fragile side of complex supply chains to deal with external shocks.Because of the political motivation of national security and the above economic reasons,it will accelerate the pace of global investment layout adjustment of multinational corporations.The urgency of China s industrial upgrading and technological innovation has significantly increased.China should make good use of the advantages of super large-scale market and the consumption upgrading,adhere to the unshakable use of foreign capital,continue to expand opening up,optimize a marketized,legalized,and internationalized business environment,build and improve the domestic regional supply chains clusters and cross-border reginal clusters,strengthen independent innovation in science and technology with the core enterprises as the leader,improve the control power of the supply chain,and accelerate the rise to the high end of the value chain.