农村大学生土地承包权退出意愿及其影响因素——基于437名农村大学生的问卷调查

The Withdrawal Willingness of Land Contract Right for Rural College Students and Its Influencing Factors:Based on a Survey of 437 Rural College Students

厘清农村大学生持有土地承包权的现状和特征,分析农村大学生退出土地承包权的意愿及影响因素,为农村土地承包权退出政策设计提供参考。本文利用437名农村大学生问卷调查数据,采用Probit模型揭示农村大学生土地承包权退出意愿的影响因素。研究表明:农村大学生退出土地承包权意愿比普通农民或农民工更高,给予合理的退地补偿可以显著增加其退出意愿。在城镇安家落户的假设下,农村大学生无偿退出土地承包权的意愿主要受学历、对土地未来价值的预期、家庭在城镇是否购有商品房以及对承包地所有权归属的认知等因素的影响。在有合理补偿的假设下,农村大学生退出土地承包权的意愿主要受年龄、对土地未来价值的预期、家乡的土地撂荒现象以及对承包地流转权的认知等因素的影响。绝大多数农村大学生愿意退出承包地的前提是在城市里有稳定的工作和属于自己的住宅,倾向的补偿方式是以土地置换城镇住房和得到一次性经济补偿。建议在保障农村大学生土地承包权益和充分尊重农村大学生意愿的基础上逐步引导农地退出,重点引导土地撂荒严重地区和土地流转市场不发达地区的农地退出,明确农地退出补偿标准,对不愿意退出土地承包权的农村大学生可以鼓励其流转土地经营权,同时要为农村大学生在城市自由就业提供政策保障。

The research aims to clarify the current situation and characteristics of rural college students holding the farm land contract right and analyze the willingness and influencing factors of rural college students to withdraw from their land contract right,to provide references for the policy design of the exit of rural land contract right.Taking the questionnaire survey data of 437 rural college students,this paper uses the method of independent sample T-test to analyze the significant differences of the basic characteristics of rural college students with different exit willingness.The research finds that the willingness of rural college students to withdraw from their land contract right is stronger than that of ordinary farmers and migrant workers;moreover,proper compensation could greatly enhance this kind of intention.Under the assumption of urban settling,whether rural college students are willing to withdraw from the land contract right free of charge is mainly influenced by the factors of educational background,the expectation of land value in the future,whether the family owns a commodity apartment in cities and the cognition of ownership of the contracted land.Under the assumption of reasonable compensation,whether rural college students are willing to withdraw from the land contract right is mainly affected by the factors of age,the expectation of land value in the future,the area of the contracted farm land,the prevalence of idle cultivated land in hometown and the cognition of the transfer right of the contracted land.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to protect the land contract right of rural college students,including to fully respect the willingness of the rural college students,to clarify the compensation standards of quitting the land contract right,and to establish the employment security mechanism for rural college students.