全球战略收缩期与中国“强国外交”新征程

The Global Strategic Retrenchment Period and A New Journey for China’s Strong Country Diplomacy

国家战略取向呈现战略收缩或战略扩张两种态势,受国家实力和国际环境影响显著。新冠疫情蔓延深刻影响国际关系,使得未来全球进入战略收缩期。主要基于两点判断:一是疫情对全球经济的冲击明显,导致大国实力受损;二是全球治理动能有所削弱,国际环境的竞争性上升。这也致使未来大国的战略重心是国内政治,在对外政策方面更加内向和保守,战略收缩概率大为增加。受全球战略收缩期的系统性影响,将呈现大国博弈持续增强、全球治理深陷困境、全球动荡风险增加等态势。中国的发展已由“富起来”转入“强起来”阶段,面对艰难逆境,中国“强国外交”开启新征程。对此需警惕战略诱惑的陷阱,规避战略透支的风险,在大国外交、周边外交、发展中国家外交和多边外交方面有所调整。

The national strategic orientation presents two trends: strategic retrenchment or strategic expansion,which are mainly influenced by national strength and international environment. The global spread of COVID-19 has profoundly affected current international relations,which make the future world enter a strategic retrenchment period. There are two main bases for judging this. First,the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is extremely obvious,resulting in the loss of the strength of great powers in the world. Second,the momentum for global governance has weakened,competition among great powers has intensified,and the international environment has become more competitive. As a result,the strategic focus of the future great powers will be domestic politics,and they will be more introverted and conservative in their foreign policies,which will greatly increase the probability of strategic contraction. Because of the systematic effects of the global retrenchment period,the competition among great powers continues to intensify,global governance is in deep trouble and the risk of global upheavals has increased. China’s development has shifted from "getting rich"to"getting strong". In the face of difficulties and adversity,China’s diplomacy should adjust accordingly: be alert to the pitfalls of strategic temptation,avoid the risk of strategic overdraft and act prudently in major country diplomacy,peripheral diplomacy,developing country diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy.