美国建立和维持霸权的偏好与方式变化:从接纳到排斥

The Changes on Preference and Methods in Establishing and Maintaining American Hegemony:from Adopting to Excluding

为了成功推行一项国际制度安排,国家必须考虑成本与收益,因此建立制度的偏好同样起到非常重要的作用。作为霸权制度的布雷顿森林体系虽然代表当时美国政治精英对战后国际秩序的主张,但国内强大的孤立主义传统和国际上其他国家的抵制,使之面临失败的危险。在这场博弈过程中,美国政治精英对内精心塑造国内民众的偏好,使之摆脱孤立主义的束缚,成功地使《布雷顿森林协议》获得国会认可,同时通过利益吸引将越来越多的国家纳入该秩序。70年来,美国霸权衰落的声音不绝于耳,美国实力相对衰落越发明显。中美两国在西太平洋地区的战略博弈呈现出激化的迹象。美国对华政策开始从“接纳”中国融入其主导的国际秩序转向“排斥”。

In order to successfully implement an international institutional arrangement,countries must consider the costs and benefits,so the preference for institutional establishment also plays a very important role.Although the Bretton Woods system,as a hegemonic system,represented the views of the American political elite on the post-war international order at that time,the strong isolationism at home and the resistance from other countries made it face the danger of failure again.In the process of this gaming,the American political elite carefully shaped the preferences of its people to get rid of the bondage of isolationism,and successfully made the Bretton Woods Agreement approved by the Congress,and adopted more countries into this system.Over the past 70 years,the voices of the decline of American hegemony have been heard constantly,and the relative decline of American power has become more and more ob⁃vious.The strategic competition between China and the United States in the Western Pacific region has intensified.The US policy towards China has been shifting from“adopting”China into the international system to“excluding”China.