基于投影寻踪权重优化的水资源承载力评价模型

Evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on projection pursuit weight optimization

针对基于专家判断的层次分析法(AHP)等主观定权方法存在一定的主观随意性,会导致区域水资源承载力评价结果具有不确定性的问题,提出采用投影寻踪(PP)方法优化AHP确定的指标权重,再结合减法集对势理论,构建了基于PP-AHP方法定权的水资源承载力评价模型,并以安徽省水资源承载力评价为例加以验证。结果表明:该模型能够进一步优化AHP法确定的指标权重,挖掘AHP法定权结果的不确定性信息,更好地将AHP法主观定权与PP法客观定权的优点相结合,所得权重更接近最优解,降低了指标权重不确定性带来的评价结果不合理的风险,评价结果更为稳健,验证了模型的有效性和合理性。

Aiming at the problem that the subjective weighting methods such as analytic hierarchy process(AHP)based on expert judgment have certain subjective randomness which will lead to the uncertainty of the evaluation results of regional water resources carrying capacity,projection pursuit(PP)method was adopted to optimize the index weight determined by AHP and the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on PP-AHP was established combined with subtractive set pair potential.The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province was taken as an example for verification.The results show that this model can further optimize the index weight determined by AHP method and excavate the uncertainty information of the weight results by AHP method,which can better combine the advantages of AHP weight and PP objective weight and the weight obtained is closer to the optimal solution.This model can reduce the risk of unreasonable evaluation results caused by the uncertainty of index weight and the result is more robust,which verifies the validity and rationality of this model.