基于MCR-FLUS-Markov模型的区域国土空间格局优化

Optimization of Regional Territory Space Pattern Based on MCR-FLUS-Markov Model

以滇中城市群为例,将GIS技术和MCR-FLUS-Markov模型应用于国土空间格局优化配置研究中,提出一种基于生态安全格局的国土空间格局优化配置方法,在生活空间扩张情景、生产空间开发情景、生态空间保护情景和综合优化情景4种模式下,对2030年国土空间结构布局情况进行预测,最终形成"生活-生产-生态空间"协调下的滇中城市群国土空间格局优化分区。结果表明:以生态保护红线作为生态源地,以城镇用地和农村居民点用地作为生活空间扩张源,选取9个阻力因子,采用MCR模型和累积耗费距离模型构建城市群生态安全格局,形成生态空间保护核心区、生态空间保护边缘区、生产空间开发重点区、生产空间开发边缘区和生活空间扩张集中区5个生态安全格局功能分区;以生态功能分区作为约束条件,通过MCR-FLUS-Markov模型模拟得到滇中城市群2030年3种情景下"生活-生产-生态空间"优化配置结果。生活空间扩张情景考虑了生活需要及政策指导下以生活空间扩张建设为主导的三生空间数量及结构的发展方向;在生产空间开发情景下,生活空间扩张规模得到一定控制,开发了部分生态空间潜力;在生态空间保护情景下,生产空间面积少量减小,生活空间面积少量增加。根据国土空间的主导功能及多功能性,滇中城市群2030年综合情景方案下的"生活-生产-生态空间"优化布局划分为生活空间、生产空间、生态空间、生活-生产空间、生活-生态空间、生产-生态空间和生活-生产-生态空间7大类,以生产-生态空间面积最小,生态空间面积最大,并结合城市群各县域发展特点提出了各空间类型的生活、生产开发建设和生态保护的重点及方向。研究认为,基于"生活-生产-生态空间"协调的综合情景方案更为合理,其他3种情景方案可为综合情景方案的实施进行补充和调整。

Through GIS technology,using the MCR-FLUS-Markov model,and the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan was taken as an example investigation of the optimized allocation of a territory spatial pattern to put forward a method of optimization of territory spatial patterns based on an ecological security patterns. The layout of the territory spatial pattern in 2030 was studied under the following four modes:the expansion of the living space,development of the production space,protection of ecological space and comprehensive optimization scenario,and finally an optimization of the territorial spatial pattern of the study area was formed as coordinated living-production-ecological space. The results revealed that: using the MCR and the cumulative cost distance model to construct the ecological security pattern of urban agglomeration,five functional zones of ecological security patterns were formed,which were as follows:the core area of ecological space protection,edge area of ecological space protection,key area of production space development,edge area of production space development and concentration area of living space expansion. Coupled with MCR-FLUS-Markov model,optimal allocation results for livingproduction-ecological space were obtained for four scenarios in 2030,and the focus of the various scenario simulations set by the research were different. According to their dominant functions and multi-functional natures of the territory space,the optimized layout of the living-production-ecological space under the comprehensive scenario plan for the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan in 2030 were divided into living, production, ecological, living-production, living-ecological, production-ecological, livingproduction-ecological spaces,with the area of the production-ecological and ecological space as the smallest and largest,respectively. It was believed that a comprehensive scenario plan based on the coordination of the living-production-ecological space would be more reasonable,and the other three scenarios can be used to supplement and adjust the implementation of the fundamental,comprehensive scenario plan.