因果方向与反事实依赖——大卫·刘易斯关于因果方向的形而上学理论

The Direction of Causation and Counterfactual Dependence:David Lewis’Metaphysical Theory on the Direction of Causation

本文阐述了大卫·刘易斯关于因果方向的形而上学理论。刘易斯指出现实世界的一个特征:过度决定的不对称,而这个特征在他可能世界的框架中意味着奇迹的不对称。根据奇迹的不对称和他所给出的加权系统及反事实语义,三者一起证明了反事实依赖的不对称,再根据他把因果还原为反事实的主张,从而证明了因果的时间不对称。笔者将在因果模型的框架内来重新审视他的反事实的相似性语义分析,指出它和因果模型语义的相同之处,比如刻画如何实现反事实的前件,并指出这种先验的概念分析和所设想的复杂系统有悖于用反事实来分析因果的初衷。

This article expounds on David Lewis’metaphysical theory:the temporal asymmetry of causation.Lewis pointed to a characteristic of the real world:asymmetry of overdetermination,which in his framework implies asymmetry of miracles.According to the asymmetry of miracles and the weighting system and counterfactual semantics he gave,the three together proved the asymmetry of counterfactual dependence,and then according to his claim that causation can be reduced to counterfactuals,thus also proved the temporal asymmetry of causation.I will re-examine his counterfactual similarity analysis within the framework of the causal models,point out that it is similar to the causal model semantics,such as depicting the realization of antecedent of counterfactual,and also point out this a priori conceptual analysis and the conception of complex weighting systems seems to be contrary to the original intention of using counterfactuals to analyze causation.