2008年-2018年我国大陆地区入境旅游的危机周期及市场归因

Crisis cycle of inbound tourism in the Chinese mainland from 2008 to 2018 and its market attribution

自2008年以来我国大陆地区入境旅游危机不断,影响路径众说纷纭且缺乏系统的解释框架。以2000年—2018年28个国家或地区入境我国大陆地区客流量为依据,从国内、周边国家(洲内)和洲际三圈市场以及客源地、目的地和旅游通道三断面的博弈关系出发,分析各客源市场入境我国大陆地区客流量的变化情况,并建立了突发危机事件影响下入境旅游衰退的归因模型。结果发现:2009年爆发的全球金融危机和随后出现的欧洲债务危机,是影响三圈市场入境客流量减少的客源地断面经济因素;2008年的汶川地震和2012年—2015年大范围雾霾污染,是影响洲内、洲际市场入境客流量下降的目的地断面安全因素;2012年—2015年钓鱼岛问题和2017年萨德事件,分别导致洲内市场日本、韩国入境客流量减少,属于旅游通道断面政治因素。2008年—2018年,我国大陆地区入境旅游的“两降两升”危机周期,是受客源地、目的地和旅游通道三断面多起危机事件影响所致,并非单纯由景区门票上涨、旅游签证不便及服务质量不佳造成。本研究为突发危机事件的国际旅游研究提供了新的借鉴,对加强危机事件的预警和入境旅游市场拓展具有重要启示。

Since 2008,the Chinese mainland's inbound tourism crisis occurred consecutively.There are different opinions on its market attribution but lacking of systematic explanation framework.Based on the inbound passenger flow from 28 countries or regions in the world during 2000 to 2018,we analyze the changes of the inbound passenger flow in each source market and establish an attribution model for the decline of inbound tourism under the influence of sudden crisis events,starting from the three-circle market of China,peripheral countries in Asia and intercontinental markets and the three-cross section of tourist source,destination and tourism corridor.It shows that:the financial crisis in 2008 and the following European debt crisis are the economic causes of the origin cross section that influenced the decline in inbound flows in the three market;the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and the widespread haze pollution in 2012-2015 are the destination cross section security causes of the decline in the ratio of the intra-continental and intercontinental markets;the Diaoyu Islands issue in 2012-2015,the SAD issue during 2017 lead to a decrease in the number of Japanese and ROK's inbound tourists respectively,which is a political reason for the disruption of the tourism channel.In short,the crisis cycle of"two drops and two rises"in the Chinese mainland inbound tourism from 2008 to 2018 is due to the impact of several crisis events in the three-cross section of tourist source,destination and tourism channel,and is not simply caused by the increase in admission fees of scenic spots,inconvenience of tourist visa and poor service quality.This study provides new reference for international tourism research on sudden crisis event and has important implications for strengthening early warning of crisis events and expanding inbound tourism market.