房地产需求刺激政策下央行政策调控应对研究

Research on the Central Bank s Policy Regulation Response under the Real Estate Demand Stimulus Policy

政府部门往往在宏观经济的下行期,出台刺激政策对房地产市场进行需求调控。本文构建一个包含房地产部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究我国住房需求刺激的宏观经济效应以及央行的政策调控应对。研究表明房地产需求刺激政策是把双刃剑,短期能部分解决经济下滑问题,但中长期会对宏观经济产生负面效应。在住房刺激政策引起经济波动时,央行依赖货币政策很难达到促进宏观经济稳定的目标,为了取得较好的宏观经济调控效果,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策形成合力。

Government departments often introduce stimulus policies to regulate the demand of real estate market during the downturn of macro-economy.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including the real estate sector,and studies the macroeconomic effects of housing demand stimulus and the central bank's policy control response.The result shows that the stimulus policy of real estate demand is a double-edged sword,which can partly solve the problem of economic downturn in the short term,but it will have a negative effect on macro-economy in the medium and long term.When housing stimulus policy causes economic fluctuations,it is difficult for the central bank to achieve the goal of promoting macroeconomic stability by relying on monetary policy.In order to achieve better macroeconomic control effect,it is necessary for the central bank to combine monetary policy with macroeconomic prudential policy.