全球经常账户失衡影响因素研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Influencing Factors of Global Current Account Imbalance——Empirical analysis based on panel data

全球经常账户失衡是国际经济学研究的热点话题。本文选取51个国家(地区)的经常账户进行面板分析,研究发现:扩张性的财政政策会恶化一国经常账户。相对人均收入和经常账户之间存在着倒U型关系;人口抚养比、经济增长率和贸易开放度的提高可以显著地改善一国经常账户;金融发展程度和实际有效汇率的提高对一国经常账户具有显著的负向作用;人口性别比并不会显著的影响一国经常账户。2020年,新冠疫情的爆发引发了学术界对世界经济未来走向的广泛担忧,也对各国财政政策、内外均衡带来了挑战。在此背景下,要稳步推行积极的财政政策,增加对出口企业的的相关政策鼓励;持续扩大对外开放,优化资源配置,提高本国的产出能力和效率;促进全球经常账户失衡的再平衡调整。

Global current account imbalance is a hot topic in international economics research. This paper conducted a panel analysis on the current accounts of 84 countries(regions) from 1992 to 2017, and found that expansionary fiscal policies would deteriorate a country’s current account. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between relative per capita income and current account. Increases in the population dependency ratio, economic growth rate, and trade openness can significantly improve a country’s current account. The gender ratio of the population is not a significant factor affecting a country’s current account imbalance. The degree of financial development and the increase in the real effective exchange rate have a significant negative effect on a country’s current account. Geographic location and oil prices do not significantly affect a country’s current account. In 2020, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has aroused widespread concern among scholars about the future direction of the world economy, and also brought challenges to the fiscal policies and internal and external balances of various countries. In this context, it is necessary to steadily implement a proactive fiscal policy and increase relevant policy encouragement for export companies;continue to expand opening up, optimize resource allocation, and improve domestic output capacity and efficiency;and promote the renewal of current account imbalances in China and the world. Balance adjustment.