轨道交通对住宅价格的时空效应研究——以南京市地铁3号线为例

Research on Time and Space Effects of Rail Transit on Residential Property Values——A Case Study of Nanjing Subway Line 3

城市轨道交通建设的快速发展,对轨道交通站点周边的住宅价格产生直接或间接的影响。本文利用南京地铁3号线开通前后9年的房地产交易数据,运用特征价格模型定量评估了该线路对周边住宅价值的时空效应影响。实证结果表明:在影响沿线住宅价格的众多因素中,轨道交通可达性的影响最为显著;轨道交通的不同发展时期对沿线住宅的增值影响程度有所不同,从立项公告发布到开工建设的前两年,沿线房价增幅最大,开通运营后房价涨势渐趋平缓;地铁对沿线住宅的空间增值效应显著,在距地铁站点1500米范围内越邻近地铁站点住宅升值越多。基于以上结论,本文从城市宏观布局、轨道交通发展时期、公共服务设施配套等方面提出相关政策建议。

The rapid development of urban rail transit has a direct or indirect impact on the housing prices around the rail transit stations. Based on the real estate transaction data of 9 years before and after the opening of Nanjing Subway Line 3, the hedonic price model was built and then the effects of the line on residential property values in the dimension of time and space were analyzed. The empirical results suggest that the rail transit accessibility is the most important factor affecting residential property values. Different development periods of rail transit have different effects on the increment of surrounding residential property values. From the announcement of project approval to the first two years of construction, the increase rate of housing price along the line is the largest, and the increase rate gradually slows down after the opening of the line. The proximity to the subway stations is associated significantly and positively with surrounding residential property values. The closer the residential buildings are to the subway stations within 1500 meters, the more residential buildings appreciate in value. Based on the conclusions, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the aspects of urban macro layout, the development period of rail transit and the supporting public service facilities.