论拉丁美洲国家的“国家风险”

Country Risks in Latin America

“国家风险”有狭义和广义之分。狭义的“国家风险”主要是指主权国家对其债务进行违约的可能性;广义的“国家风险”就是投资环境,因此“国家风险”的大小与投资环境的优劣有着非常密切的关系。优良的投资环境意味着“国家风险”较少,恶劣的投资环境必然等同于“国家风险”较多。拉美是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的自然延伸。可以预料,中国在拉美的投资有望进一步扩大。在这一过程中,中国企业有必要最大限度地规避拉美的“国家风险”。拉美的“国家风险”多种多样,其中最显著的是政治风险、经济风险、社会风险以及外交风险。为规避这些风险,中国企业要密切关注拉美形势的发展,尽量做到防患于未然;要在国家层面上制定和完善投资保护机制;要充分发挥现代保险业的优势,将可能会遭遇的损失降低到最低限度;要与中国驻拉美国家的大使馆以及东道国的中央政府和地方政府保持密切的关系。

“Country risks”can be understood in two senses.In a narrow sense,it refers to the possibility of sovereign default,whereas,in a broad sense,it is the uncertainty foreign investors face that may in some way harm their economic interests in the host market.In a sense,country risk is closely related to the investment environment in that the degree of the former determines whether the latter is good or not.The better the investment environment,the lower the country risk,and vice versa.As Latin America is seen as a natural extension of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,it can be expected that China will make more investment in the region.And in doing so,it is imperative for Chinese enterprises to avoid country risks there,which appear in multiple forms with the more significant ones being political,economic,diplomatic,and social risks.To avoid the risks,Chinese enterprises should closely follow regional developments and take the necessary precautions.At the national level,China needs to improve the mechanisms for the protection of its overseas investments and leverage its insurance industry to minimize potential losses.Moreover,Chinese investors must maintain close contact with the Chinses embassies and the local and central governments in the host countries.