儿童狼疮性肾炎的危险因素分析及风险评估模型建立

Risk Factors Analysis and Risk Assessment Model of Lupus Nephritis in Children

目的:分析系统性红斑狼疮(SLE)患儿合并狼疮性肾炎(LN)的临床特征及危险因素,构建风险评估模型。方法:回顾性研究我院收治的146名SLE患儿的资料,分析合并LN的危险因素,建立风险评估模型。结果:(1)神经系统症状,血小板(PLT)、补体C3、补体C4下降,三酰甘油(TG)升高及抗dsDNA抗体阳性、抗核小体抗体阳性与LN有关;(2)神经系统症状、抗dsDNA抗体、抗核小体抗体、TG是发生LN的独立危险因素;(3)建立的风险评估模型预测的灵敏度89.5%,特异度69.6%。结论:神经系统症状、抗dsDNA抗体、抗核小体抗体、TG作为独立危险因素可用于儿童SLE合并LN风险评估模型的构建,对LN早期诊疗有一定意义。

Objective:The clinical characteristics and risk factors of lupus erythematosus(SLE)complicated with lupus nephritis(LN)in children were analyzed to construct a risk assessment model.Methods:Data of 146 SLE children admitted to our hospital were retrospectively studied to analyze the risk factors associated with LN and establish a risk assessment model.Results:(1)neurological symptoms,decreased platelet(PLT),C3 and C4,increased triglyceride(TG),positive anti-dsdna antibody and positive anti-nucleosome antibody were related to LN.(2)nervous system symptoms,anti-dsdna antibodies,anti-nucleosome antibodies and TG were independent risk factors for the occurrence of LN.(3)the sensitivity and specificity of the established risk assessment model were 89.5% and 69.6% respectively.Conclusion:As independent risk factors,nervous system symptoms,anti-dsdna antibodies,anti-nucleosome antibodies and TG can be used to construct a risk assessment model for children SLE combined with LN,which is significant for the early diagnosis and treatment of LN.