基于OSA-ISM的港口产业生态圈系统影响因素

Influencing factors of port industry ecosystem based on OSA-ISM model

为研究港口产业生态圈系统内各影响因素的相互关系,针对解释结构方程(ISM)存在的不足,引入OSA-ISM算法模型,首先采用自组织的客观系统分析(OSA)方法在训练集上产生复杂度逐渐增加的模型,利用检验集筛选模型,系统外准则值的最小值对应最优方程组;再通过最优方程组以定量方式给出系统变量间的连接方法和连接强度.根据OSA最优方程组中变量之间的系数是否为0或通过设定阈值确定ISM的邻接矩阵,从整体角度准确地揭示港口产业生态圈系统要素的结构,是实现系统要素层次划分和关键提取的有效途径.以上海等9个港口及其2018年的历史数据对其产业生态圈系统的影响因素进行实证分析.研究结果表明:规模以上生产企业数、港口集装箱吞吐量、港口等级、港口资产总额、港口固定资产投资、港口货物吞吐量和港口城市环保投入成为影响港口产业生态圈系统的重要因素;与传统ISM方法得到的结果相比较,验证了本文方法的有效性.

In order to study the relationship among the influencing factors in the port industry ecosystem,aiming at the shortcomings of interpretative structural equation(ISM),the OSA-ISM algorithm was introduced.Firstly,the self-organized objective system analysis(OSA)method was used to generate the model with increasing complexity on the training set,and the test set was used to screen the model.The minimum value of the criterion value outside the system corresponds to the optimal equations.Then,the connection method and connection strength between system variables were given quantitatively through the optimal equations.According to whether the coefficient between variables in OSA optimal equations was 0 or by setting a threshold to determine the adjacency matrix of ISM,it was an effective way to accurately reveal the structure of the system elements of the port industry ecosystem from the overall point of view.Based on the historical data of 9 ports including Shanghai in 2018,an empirical analysis was conducted on the influencing factors of their industrial ecosystem.The results show that the number of large-scale production enterprises,port container throughput,port grade,total port assets,port fixed assets investment,port cargo throughput and port city environmental protection investment are important factors affecting the port industrial ecosystem.Compared with the traditional ISM method,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.