供应链视角下邮轮港口公共卫生事件模型分析

Analysis on public health event model of cruise port from the perspective of supply chain

为尽可能减少新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情感染人数,邮轮和港口应当采取联合应对防控措施.本文首先从供应链角度出发,给出公共卫生事件下邮轮服务供应链,并分析了其运作机制;然后,将传染病SIR仓室模型引入邮轮系统,构建符合新型冠状病毒特点的邮轮传染模型和邮轮-港口供应链两阶段传染模型;最后,采用中国疫情初期数据并使用MATLAB工具进行实证分析.结果表明:从供应链角度,将邮轮人员转移至港口进行严格隔离的效果比只在邮轮上隔离效果好,且越早上岸隔离风险越小.研究结果可为邮轮产业应对突发公共卫生事件提供新思路.

In order to minimize the number of people infected with the COVID-19 outbreak,the cruise and port should take joint preventive and control measures.Firstly,from the perspective of supply chain,in this paper,a supply chain of cruise service under public health events was introduced and the operation mechanism was analyzed.Then,the SIR compartment model of infectious disease was introduced into the cruise system to construct a cruise infection model with New Coronavirus characteristics and a two stage epidemic model of cruise port supply chain.Finally,the initial data of epidemic situation in China and Matlab tool were used for empirical analysis.The results show that from the perspective of supply chain,the effect of transferring cruise personnel to port for strict isolation is better than that only isolation on cruise,and the earlier they go ashore,the smaller the isolation risk.The results can provide new ideas for the cruise industry to deal with public health emergencies.