基于新一代信息技术支撑智能化宏观决策的方法与实践

Research and Practice of Intelligent Macro Decision Support Based on New Generation of Information Technology

【目的】开展新一代信息技术支撑智能化宏观决策的方法与实践研究,有助于为智能化宏观决策系统的建设提供理论和应用借鉴,是实现宏观决策科学化的重要基础。【方法】通过对新一代信息技术发展下智能化宏观决策新需求的分析,提出了以智库研究双螺旋结构为基础的智能化宏观决策支持系统架构,梳理了宏观决策支持系统应用的三类场景。【结果】随着新一代信息技术的发展,为满足宏观决策对问题解决的科学性、复杂性、敏捷性、友好性新需求,智能化宏观决策支持系统将包含四层核心架构:资料汇聚层在问题导向下采集宏观决策各子问题的相关资料,汇聚形成多源异构资料库;知识融合层在多学科交叉支撑下为决策服务构建集问题历史经验、现实状态、未来发展协调统一的知识和模型体系;集成评估层以模拟评估和专家评估为支撑,对事物发展趋势和多维度影响及其技术可行性和政策可行性展开综合分析,迭代优化形成问题解决方案;交互决策层为决策者访问支持系统各层服务提供多种终端的、可视化的、友好的交互环境。智能化宏观决策支持将分别支撑各类决策主体的战略决策、战术决策、运行决策需求。【结论】智能化宏观决策支持系统将成为提高我国宏观决策精确性、科学性,实现治理能力现代化的重要支撑。

[Objective]Research on intelligent macro decision support based on the new generation of information technology provides the theoretical and application assistance for the construction of intelligent macro-decision-making support systems,and is an important foundation for scientific macro-decision-making.[Methods]Based on the analysis of the new demands for intelligent macro decision-making under the development of the new generation of information technology,an intelligent macro decision support system architecture based on the double helix structure of think tank research is proposed,and three types of macro decision support system application scenarios are recognized.[Results]In order to meet the requirements in scientific merits,complexity,agility,and user-friendliness of macro decision-making,the intelligent macro decision support system covers four layers.The data collection layer collects relevant data on each sub-problem of macro-decision-making under the problem-oriented guidance,and aggregates them to form a multisource heterogeneous database.The knowledge and model layer,under the multidisciplinary support,aims to build a knowledge and model system coordinating historical experience,the current state and the future development of the decision-making problem.The integrated assessment layer is supported by simulation evaluation and expert evaluation,which comprehensively analyzes the development trends and multi-dimensional influence of decision-making problems in terms of technical feasibility and policy feasibility,and forms problem solutions through iterative optimization.The interactive decision-making layer is the interface for accessing the service of each layer via a multi-terminal,visual,and user-friendly interactive environment.Macro decision support can meet the strategic,tactical,and operational decisionmaking needs of different decision makers.[Conclusions]The intelligent macro decision support system will become an important foundation for improving the accuracy and scientific property of national macro decision making and realizing the modernization of governance capabilities.