制度质量、经济发展与贸易结构优化——基于门槛模型的实证分析

Institution Quality,Economic Development and Trade Structure Optimization--Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Model

在传统要素红利逐渐消失的背景下,制度红利成为推动未来对外贸易高质量发展的关键因素。使用69个国家和地区的面板数据,借鉴Hansen的门槛模型,探究制度质量对贸易结构的非线性影响关系。结果发现:在经济发展水平(GDP)作为门槛变量时,制度质量对贸易结构的影响呈"U"型关系。较高的制度质量对于一个国家或地区的出口贸易及其贸易结构的优化至关重要,而贸易结构的优化不仅仅取决于制度的质量,只有在一定的经济发展水平和规模之上,制度对于贸易结构优化的作用才能体现。

In the context of the gradual disappearance of traditional factor dividends,institutional dividends have become a key factor to promote the high-quality development of foreign trade in the future.This paper used panel data from 69 countries and regions and drew on the threshold model of Hansen to explore the non-linear influence of institutional quality on trade structure.The results showed that:When the economic development level(GDP)was taken as the threshold variable,the impact of institutional quality on the trade structure showed a"U-shaped"relationship.Higher institutional quality was crucial for a country′s export trade and the optimization of trade structure.The optimization of trade structure not only depended on the quality of the system,only in a certain level of economic development and scale,the role of the sys tem in the optimization of trade structure could be reflected.