产业结构调整对收入分配差距的影响研究——基于新型城镇化中介效应和政府支出规模调节效应的讨论

Research on the Influence of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Income Distribution Gap——Discussion Based on the Mediating Effect of New Urbanization and the Moderating Effect of Government Expenditure Scale

缩小收入分配差距是我国经济社会发展面临的重大课题。基于中国2000—2018年31个省(区、市)的面板数据,探讨了产业结构调整对城乡收入分配差距的影响,以及在此过程中城镇化的中介作用和政府支出规模的调节作用。研究发现:产业结构调整的两个维度即产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化在西部与东、中部之间,其对于城乡收入分配差距的作用不同,伴随该进程,将缩小西部城乡收入之间的差距,但又可能扩大东、中部地区收入分配差距;新型城镇化在产业结构调整对于收入分配中的中介效应显著,且城镇信息化水平的中介影响最大。环境城镇化有助于发挥产业结构调整的收入分配正效应,人口城镇化、经济城镇化过快可能诱发产业结构调整的收入分配负效应增大;政府支出规模正向调节效应有待加强。最后提出了加快产业结构调整、推进新型城镇化建设、合理调控政府支出规模等政策建议。

Narrowing the income distribution gap is an important issue facing China′s economic and social development.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2000 to 2018,this paper explores the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the urbanrural income distribution gap,as well as the mediating role of urbanization and the moderating role of government expenditure in this process.The study found that the two aspects of industrial structure adjustment,namely,the rationalization of industrial structure and the upgrading of industrial structure,have different effects on the income distribution gap between urban and rural areas in the western and eastern and central regions which will narrow the gap between urban and rural income in the west while widening the income distribution gap in the eastern and central regions.New-type urbanization has a significant mediating effect on income distribution in the adjustment of industrial structure,and the level of urban informatization has the largest mediating effect.Environmental urbanization helps to exert the positive effect of the income distribution of industrial structure adjustment,while fast population urbanization and economic urbanization may lead to an increase in the negative income distribution effect of industrial structure adjustment.The positive moderating effect of the scale of government expenditure needs to be strengthened.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward,such as accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure,advancing the construction of new urbanization,and rationally regulating the scale of government expenditures.