中美两国入境旅游谁更稳定?——基于客源市场结构与事件冲击的比较分析

Who Is More Stable in the Inbound Tourism Industry Between China and the United States?——A Comparative Analysis Based on the Structure of Tourist Source Market and the Impact of Events

通过收集中美两国入境旅游数据,利用聚集度指数、市场集中度指数和本底趋势线,从客源市场结构和对事件冲击响应的程度两个层面,分析中美两国入境旅游的稳定性。研究发现:(1)中美两国入境旅游稳定性在提高,相比较而言,中国入境旅游的稳定性更高且提升更快。(2)1986年以来,两国入境旅游共受到12次事件的冲击和影响;2001年以来,两国会议商务类和观光休闲类入境旅游均受到8次事件的影响。受事件影响,两国入境旅游平均损失率相差不大,但发生在中国及其周边或直接与中国相关的事件数较多,说明中国入境旅游的稳定性相对更高。(3)发生在某一旅游地的重大事件,其影响会传递到其他旅游地。不同事件对同一旅游地或同一类型入境游客的影响不同;同一事件对不同旅游地的影响不同,对不同类型游客的影响也不同。

By collecting the data of inbound tourism in China and the United States,and using Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI),Market Concentration Rate(CRn)and the trend line of the background,the stability of inbound tourism in China and the United State have been analyzed from two aspect,which including the structure of tourist market and the degree of response to the impact of events.The results show that:In the past 40 years,the stability of inbound tourism between China and the United States has been improved.Furthermore,compared with the inbound tourism industry in United States,the stability of Chinese inbound tourism industry is higher,and it is improving faster,as well.Since 1986,The inbound tourism industry in China and the United States have been affected by 12 incidents,and since 2001 the inbound tourists in the category of conference and business,sightseeing and leisure categories have been affected by 8 incidents.The average loss rate of inbound tourism between China and the United States affected by the incident is similar during the period,but the number of incidents occurring in and around China or directly related to China is higher than the United States,indicating that the Chinese inbound tourism industry is much more stable.Once,an important event occurred in one tourist destination,the impact of the event would be passed from one tourist destination to another.Different events affect visitors from the same destination or type of destination differently.The impact of the same event on different tourist destinations is different,and the impact on different types of tourists is also different.